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XM市场研究

XM市场研究 - 5小时前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up, stocks muted as China stimulus underwhelms

China announces more stimulus details but no word on size of packageAttention turns to week’s other events as stocks unimpressedEuro and pound flat as ECB decision and UK CPI awaitedChina pledges more support, stocks steadyChinese officials unveiled more measures to shore up the country’s embattled property sector while also pledging further support for businesses and consumers in two separate announcements on Saturday and Monday.
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XM市场研究 - 6小时前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps; EURUSD remains beneath 1.1000UK CPI could provide some clues for the next BoE decision; GBPUSD in weak modeUS retail sales may lower chances for another Fed rate cut; USDJPY flirts with 149.35ECB decision -->  EURUSDThe upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday is this week's most anticipated event. Initially opposed by President Lagarde and her colleagues, the possibility of a rate decrease in October has gained traction among investors.�
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Week Ahead – ECB headed towards another cut, CPI on the agenda elsewhere

The ECB is expected to deliver its first back-to-back rate cut on ThursdayCPI data incoming in Canada, China, Japan, New Zealand and UKChina GDP and US retail sales also high on investors’ radarIs an ECB rate cut a done deal?Following the RBNZ, which cut interest rates by 50 basis points this Wednesday, the central bank torch will be passed next week to the ECB.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar baffled after mixed data and Fedspeak

Jobless claims contradict the stronger CPI reportFed’s Bostic talks about a November Fed pauseDollar trades sideways as the market still expects a November cutOil and gold in the green, pound doesn’t enjoy today’s dataCPI and jobless claims jump, but Fed’s Bostic makes the headlinesThe US inflation report managed to produce an upside surprise with both the headline and core indicators accelerating by an additional 0.1% on an annual basis compared to the economists’ forecasts.
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XM市场研究 - 4天前Bearish

Technical Analysis – EURUSD continues to ease below 1.0950

EURUSD may find strong support at 200-day SMAPrice loses 2.5% from 1.1200 levelMomentum oscillators near oversold conditionsEURUSD is still developing beneath the 1.0950 support level, after the completion of the double top pattern below the 1.1000 key level, which suggests a reversal of the trend. Currently, the price is also standing between  the penetrated short-term uptrend line and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0870.If the selling interest continues, the price may rebou
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XM市场研究 - 4天前Neutral

Midweek Technical Look – EURUSD, USDCAD, gold

EURUSD retains selling interest beneath 1.0950USDCAD declines after aggressive buying interest to 2-month highGold finds support at 2,600 critical level
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XM市场研究 - 5天前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar seeks direction amidst tepid market conditions

Fed speakers and minutes in the spotlight todayDollar’s rally pauses, but oil and gold suffer lossesRBNZ cuts rates by 50bps, kiwi weakensChina schedules another press conference as local stocks plungeFed members continue to support a November rate cutThe public discussion regarding the Fed’s next steps continues, as a plethora of Fed members are on the wires almost on a daily basis.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

Volatility skyrockets across the board after an eventful week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges to the highest level of the monthVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly highStock indices experience very high volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has reached the highest level of the past 30 days, as the FX market was rocked by the strong US labour market report, denting the possibility of another 50bps Fed rate cut in November.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

As investors scale back Fed cut bets, US CPI data enters the spotlight – Preview

US NFP data eliminate chances of another 50bps rate cutSpotlight turns to US CPI numbers for SeptemberPMI data corroborate the notion for sticky underlying inflationThe data comes out on Thursday, at 12:30 GMTBets of 50bps cut in November disappearThe dollar’s engines received more fuel on Friday, with the catalyst this time around being the robust US employment data for September.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar stands tall after robust jobs report

Strong US data dent chances of a 50bps Fed rate cutPlethora of Fed speakers on the wires todayDollar enjoys strong gains, stocks rally unexpectedlyOil pushes higher as gold’s retreat continuesUS jobs report surprises to the upside, doves are displeasedAnother exciting week commences as market participants are still digesting the unexpectedly strong US labour market data.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Bearish

Technical Analysis – EURUSD pauses southward run near 1.0950

 EURUSD posts 6 red sessionsPrice plunges below 1.1000Stochastics indicates upside recoveryBut RSI keeps fallingEURUSD plummeted more than 2% after the pullback from the double top around 1.1200, recording six straight red days. The price also tumbled beneath the short-term uptrend line and the 1.1000 round number, confirming the bearish correction in the near term.The RSI indicator is falling beneath the neutral threshold of 50; however, the stochastic is suggesting the end of the negative ret
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Quick Brief – US labour market data boosts both the dollar and stocks

Non-farm payrolls jump by 254k, a 6-month highUnemployment dips and hourly earnings surprise to the upsideDollar benefits, US stocks also bounce higherThe September non-farm payrolls report printed at 254k, a 6-month high, and well above forecasts for a 140k increase. With the August print revised slightly higher to 159k, the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and the average hourly earnings growth jumping to 4%, one could say the latest set of labour market data was unexpectedly strong. The ch
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Week Ahead – As the dollar recovers, spotlight falls on US CPI inflation

US CPI data to guide Fed rate cut bets and the dollarRBNZ expected to cut interest rates by 50bps Wounded pound awaits monthly GDP numbersCanada jobs data and BoC business survey also on tabDollar rebounds on safe haven flows and upbeat dataThe US dollar staged a meaningful recovery this week aided by Fed Chair Powell’s remarks that the US central bank would likely stick with quarter-point rate cuts, adding that they are not “in a hurry”, as new data have bolstered their confidence in the
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Quick brief – ISM non-mfg PMI beats forecasts, Biden comments on Iran’s oil facilities

ISM non-mfg PMI rises faster than expected in September; employment index declinesBiden alleges that Israel is preparing to carry out attacks on Iran’s oil sites The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey indicated growth for the third straight month in September, with the index reaching 54.9 - the highest reading since February 2023 - surpassing analysts’ expectations of 51.7 and August’s reading of 51.4.The new orders index saw a significant increase of over 6 points to reach 59.4, while the
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains on upbeat US data

Dollar gains as ADP jobs report beats estimatesYen falls on prime minister Ishiba’s dovish remarksPound collapses after BoE’s Bailey warns about faster cutsWall Street virtually unchanged, gold retreats, oil extends gainsUS data allow dollar to extend latest recoveryThe dollar extended its gains against its major peers on Wednesday and during the Asian session Thursday.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Could Friday’s data tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

 Discussions about the size of the November Fed rate cut continueMixed labour market data up to now with ADP surprising on the upsideFriday’s data matters the most; non-farm payrolls seen rising by 140kGeopolitics boost demand for dollar, data could reverse this trend Fed rate cut discussions continueWith the market trying to figure out the next development in the Middle East and the likely market impact, the debate about the size of the November Fed rate cut continues.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bounces off short-term uptrend line

EURUSD's double top pattern continuesRSI tries to move upBut stochastic eases towards oversold areaEURUSD is resting near the short-term uptrend line around the 1.1070 support level after the aggressive selling interest from the 1.1200-1.1215 resistance region. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is heading south towards the oversold zone; h
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Quick Brief – ISM manufacturing survey fails to please the Fed hawks

ISM manufacturing survey prints at 47.2, below forecastsEmployment subindex erases the August improvementStocks are firmly in the red, smaller reaction in euro/dollarThe ISM manufacturing survey printed at 47.2, below market forecasts for a small improvement. Interestingly, the important employment subindex resumed its downward trend, with the remaining subcomponents also failing to improve.Additionally, the final print of the September PMI manufacturing survey edged higher but remains stuck bel
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