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Reuters - 3小时前

FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Nowhere fast, election bid, USD hedge Shorter term expiry FX option implied volatility remains depressed to highlight a lack of short-term realised volatility expectations, with overnight/next day expiry option premiums hitting their lowest levels since July . Premium/break-even prices taken from overnight expiry implied volatility in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, were at/below 25 USD pips on Monday's U.S.
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Reuters - 4小时前

FX is going nowhere fast - according to options

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX is going nowhere fast - according to options Oct 14 (Reuters) - Implied volatility serves as a proxy for realized FX volatility when pricing options. For very short-term expiries, implied volatility is currently exceptionally low. Overnight expiry is the next working day at 10-am New York/3-pm London and is the shortest duration option.
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Reuters - 7小时前

Dollar shorts will be hurt if a tech level is overcome

BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar shorts will be hurt if a tech level is overcome Oct 14 (Reuters) - Remaining speculative U.S. dollar shorts will come under more pressure if there is sustained trading above a recently broken technical level. The speculative dollar short position - derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars - has fallen.
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Reuters - 9小时前

FX options brace for a bigger USD recovery

RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options brace for a bigger USD recovery Repeats with no changes Oct 11 (Reuters) - The recent price action in forward looking FX options shows a market fearful of a bigger USD recovery and positioning itself accordingly. FX positioning shifted sharply toward a weaker USD with the onset of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle.
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Reuters - 3天前

FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Balancing current FX with impending risks The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive has been lacking and leaves dealers to manage time decay costs whilst retaining protection from impending risks. This scenario is reflected in FX option premium and trade flows. The USD has staged a recovery from its late September lows as the extent of the U.S.
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Reuters - 3天前

Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are options under-pricing US election risk to USD/JPY? Oct 11 (Reuters) - When comparing FX option volatility risk premiums with their fair value measures for expiry dates, which include the U.S. election on November 5, USD/JPY stands out as being potentially under-priced. FX volatility is a key, yet unknown parameter of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand in.
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Reuters - 3天前

FX options brace for a bigger USD recovery

BUZZ-COMMENT-FX options brace for a bigger USD recovery Oct 11 (Reuters) - The recent price action in forward looking FX options shows a market fearful of a bigger USD recovery and positioning itself accordingly. FX positioning shifted sharply toward a weaker USD with the onset of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. However, a modest USD recovery, driven by reduced expectations of rate cuts, has understandably fuelled concerns over further USD gains.
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Reuters - 3天前

Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand out G10 FX option strike expiries next week Oct 11 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can bolster nearby support and resistance levels, whilst having a magnetic effect on FX price action, and there are plenty to note on Friday and the week ahead. The biggest nearby EUR/USD strikes on Monday are at 1.0945-50 on 1.5 billion euros, Tuesday at 1.1000 on 3.3 billion euros, Wednesday at 1.0950-55 on 2.7 billion euros and on Thursday between 1.0975-90 on
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Reuters - 4天前

Dollar slips against yen after data shows labor market weakness, rising inflation

FOREX-Dollar slips against yen after data shows labor market weakness, rising inflation Updates headline, first paragraph and prices throughout, adds new analyst comment and Bostic interview By Chibuike Oguh NEW YORK, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Thursday as investors weighed data s howing labor market weakness as well as a slight uptick in consumer prices , suggesting that the Federal Reserve w ill likely continue cutting interest rates.
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Reuters - 4天前

FX options wrap - Falling FX volatility precedes a resurgence

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Falling FX volatility precedes a resurgence Price action in FX options suggests traders are anticipating a period of lower FX volatility before a resurgence in early November. Implied volatility for options expiring through the end of October is relatively low and sellers have been dominating the fairly limited trade flows. However, benchmark 1-month expiry options include the U.S.
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Reuters - 4天前

U.S CPI won't match NFP impact on FX, options show

BUZZ-COMMENT-U.S CPI won't match NFP impact on FX, options show Oct 10 (Reuters) - FX volatility is an unknown, yet key parameter of an FX option 's premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in. The implied volatility attached to overnight options since their expiry included Thursday's U.S. CPI data is well below that seen before Friday's U.S.
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Reuters - 5天前

US dollar rises to two-month highs ahead of CPI

FOREX-US dollar rises to two-month highs ahead of CPI Updates as of 1433 EDT By Alden Bentley and Alun John NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, taking in stride the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting that showed a substantial majority of policymakers backed its outsized 50-basis point rate cut.
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Reuters - 5天前

Dollar won't fall as rest of world won't let it: Mike Dolan

RPT-COLUMN-Dollar won't fall as rest of world won't let it: Mike Dolan Repeating item sent previously with no changes to text; the opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters By Mike Dolan LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The dollar just had its best week in two years, showing once again how dangerous it can be to bet against the U.S.
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Reuters - 5天前

Traders badly positioned for the rising dollar

BUZZ-COMMENT-Traders badly positioned for the rising dollar Oct 9 (Reuters) - Traders are terribly positioned for the rising dollar which has gained almost 3% following the failure to break important downside levels in September. Traders are short dollars versus the euro, pound, yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars , plus Mexico's peso, and have bet that the dollar falls versus every Asian currency in Reuters latest FX poll .
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Reuters - 6天前

FX options wrap - USD path, RBNZ, U.S. election and Fed risks

BUZZ-FX options wrap - USD path, RBNZ, U.S. election and Fed risks FX option implied volatility is broadly heavy as the USD consolidates its recent recovery and leaves G10 FX spot within familiar ranges without any real break-out catalysts. There has been an increase in FX volatility risk premium for USD call options as shown by near dated risk reversals in most of the major pairings, but those gains have since stalled.
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Reuters - 6天前

Speculative dollar shorts are vulnerable

BUZZ-COMMENT-Speculative dollar shorts are vulnerable Oct 8 (Reuters) - There are fundamental and technical reasons why the dollar could see a bigger rise in coming sessions with outstanding speculative short positions vulnerable to being squeezed in the near-term. The speculative dollar short position - derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars - has grown.
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Reuters - 1周前

US rates back up, stocks back down

MORNING BID ASIA-US rates back up, stocks back down By Alden Bentley Oct 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. A short-lived conviction that the Fed would stick to a dovish path evaporated after Friday's bet-busting payrolls number, with Treasury yields on Monday backing up above 4% and traders introducing a small chance that November might not yield a rate cut at all.
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Reuters - 1周前

Dollar consolidates after strongest week in two years

FOREX-Dollar consolidates after strongest week in two years Updates as of 1526 EDT By Chibuike Oguh and Alden Bentley NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar stalled near a seven-week high on Monday as investors reassessed their positions after last week's strong U.S. jobs data and as fears that Middle East tensions would spill into a wider conflict drove bids for safe havens.
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Reuters - 1周前

FX options wrap - A firmer USD trade is lacking conviction

BUZZ-FX options wrap - A firmer USD trade is lacking conviction Oct 7 (Reuters) - The USD has recovered more ground since Friday's U.S. payroll data beat, and although FX options are primed for further USD gains, they lack the conviction for an extended move. Banks note USD demand on dips, especially EUR/USD in the mid 1.09s , which is also attracting huge FX option strike expiry hedging.
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Reuters - 1周前

Growing list of reasons to lean against Swiss franc upside

BUZZ-COMMENT-Growing list of reasons to lean against Swiss franc upside Oct 7 (Reuters) - The FX reserve data from the SNB for September provides yet another reason to lean against CHF upside. Reserves increased for the first time since April, up CHF 21.66bln, marking the second largest monthly rise since December 2021. Thus, with the SNB displaying a preference to push against a strong Swiss franc, the bias to fade gains in the currency remains, particularly against the dollar and yen.
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