This may be ideal time to sell dollars
Oct 15 (Reuters) -This may be ideal time to sell dollars, which appears to have peaked ahead of important resistance levels following a period when traders reduced short positions.
Traders who have been preparing for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates on Thursday are less prepared for the dollar drop that may result lower oil prices. A fall in oil prices not only undermines producers like the U.S., but also heightens the likelihood that interest rates drop as far and as quickly as traders had expected when they aggressively sold dollars for several months before the first cut was made in September.
Dollar gains due to the profit-taking that inevitably followed that first move have been exacerbated by the lessening in expectations for the U.S. easing cycle that saw the base for the U.S. interest rate rise from below 3% toward 3.5%.
The dollar index, which rose around three percent following the Federal Reserve's opening gambit, has stalled around the 100-day moving average and daily Ichimoku cloud top. The failure to sustain the break hints at a bull trap. After unwinding half of the losses resulting from initial expectations, the dollar may resume its decline, fuelled by the heightened chance that rates come down further and faster on the back of lower oil prices.
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USD index https://tmsnrt.rs/488Kjyc
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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