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South Africa's rand once again showing resilience



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Oct 14 (Reuters) -Despite a broadly stronger dollar and nervous risk sentiment, the rand closed up for the week ending October 11. Market chatter suggests that rand long positions are overcrowded but a resilient rand could still push higher again this week.

Early Monday action has shown the rand weakening versus the dollar, possibly reflecting disappointment that China could not provide greater stimulus assurance to the market.

In the rand's favour has been a lack of escalation in the Middle East conflict and this could limit some fallout from the weekend news out of China.

USD/ZAR has started the week on a positive footing but remains below key resistance at Thursday's high of 17.6750 and 17.5900, the 10-day moving average line. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, taken off the 19.3975-17.0375 drop, comes in at 17.9390.

On the support side USD/ZAR is holding above a significant long-term level, 16.9190. The 200-day moving average has supported the market since April 2022 and if the underlying bear trend is to extend, this level will have to give way soon.

On balance the rand still has potential, supported by carry trade attraction and the backing of a bull trend, in place since October.

For more click on FXBUZ


USD/ZAR daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4eTIAiu

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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