OPEC cuts 2024, 2025 global oil demand growth view again
Makes third cut in 2024 oil demand growth forecast
Cuts view on Chinese demand growth to 580,000 bpd
IEA to publish updated forecasts on Tuesday
Adds further details, context from paragraph 2
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) -OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 reflecting data received so far this year and also lowered its projection for next year, marking the producer group's third consecutive downward revision.
The weaker outlook highlights the dilemma faced by OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which is planning to start raising output in December after earlier delaying the hike against a backdrop of falling prices.
On Monday, OPEC in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 2.03 million bpd it expected last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.
China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 580,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd. While government stimulus measures will support fourth-quarter demand, oil use is facing headwinds from economic challenges and moves towards cleaner fuels, OPEC said.
"Diesel consumption continued to be subdued by slowing economic activity, mostly a slowdown in building and housing construction, and the substitution of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for petroleum diesel fuel in heavy-duty trucks," OPEC said in reference to August.
Oil LCOc1 held an earlier decline of about 2% after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $78 a barrel.
There is a wide split between forecasters on the strength of demand growth in 2024, partly due to differences over China and over the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels. OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.
OPEC said this year's demand growth was still above the historical average of 1.4 million bpd seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a plunge in oil use.
For next year, OPEC cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.64 million bpd from 1.74 million bpd.
LIBYA, IRAQ, RUSSIA CUTS
OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.
The group was due to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from October, but decided to delay the plan for two months after oil prices slumped.
OPEC's report showed production fell in September due to unrest in Libya and a cut by Iraq. OPEC+ pumped 40.1 million bpd, down 557,000 bpd from August. Iraq pumped 4.11 million bpd, down 155,000 bpd but still above its 4 million bpd quota.
As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.
Russia cut output in September by 28,000 bpd to about 9 million bpd, the report said, citing data from secondary sources such as consultancies. Kazakhstan, however, raised production by 75,000 bpd to 1.55 million bpd.
The OPEC report projects demand for OPEC+ crude, or crude from OPEC plus the allied countries working with it, at 43.7 million bpd in the fourth quarter, in theory allowing it room for higher production.
Other forecasts suggest less room. The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees much lower demand growth than OPEC of 900,000 bpd in 2024. The IEA is scheduled to update its figures on Tuesday.
Additional reporting by Olesya Astakhova and Vladimir Soldatkin; Editing by Tomasz Janowski, Bernadette Baum and David Evans
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
