JPM says US election risk not yet reflected in metal prices
** J.P.Morgan says that while industrial metal prices have priced in China's monetary policy easing, they do not yet reflect tariff risks if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election
** It points to the previous Trump administration's trade protectionism and the 25% tariffs on U.S. steel imports announced in 2018, which had led to a decline in metal prices
** It sees a 10-20% downside to major European metal and mining stocks' fair values if base metal and iron ore prices fall more than 10%
** It is bullish on copper, aluminium and gold, but cautious on iron ore
** JPM downgrades Anglo American AAL.L to "neutral" as the U.S. election and potential tariffs create an asymmetric downside risk to industrial commodities, including iron ore
** It cuts Boliden BOL.ST to "underweight" saying it expects the Swedish miner to be FCF negative in 2025 and pointing to its material zinc exposure
** It raises Harmony Gold Mining HARJ.J to "neutral" based on its bullish gold price outlook
RATING AND PT CHANGES:
COMPANY | RATING | OLD RATING | PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Boliden | underweight | neutral | SEK 300 | SEK 305 |
Anglo American | neutral | overweight | GBP 23.35 | GBP 22.85 |
Harmony Gold Mining | neutral | underweight | ZAR 150 | ZAR 90 |
BHP BHP.AX | neutral | n/a | GBP 25.00 | GBP 25.30 |
Gold Fields GFIJ.J | neutral | n/a | ZAR 333 | ZAR 279 |
Sibanye-Stillwater SSWJ.J | neutral | n/a | ZAR 19.73 | ZAR 23.60 |
Anglo American Platinum AMSJ.J | neutral | n/a | ZAR 574 | ZAR 589 |
Norsk Hydro NHY.OL | overweight | n/a | NOK 84 | NOK 83 |
Lundin Mining LUN.TO | overweight | n/a | CAD 17.80 | CAD 17.30 |
AngloGold Ashant AU.N | overweight | n/a | $37 | $32 |
Hochschild HOCM.L | overweight | n/a | GBP 285 | GBP 250 |
Fresnillo FRES.L | overweight | n/a | GBP 900 | GBP 800 |
Impala Platinum IMPJ.J | overweight | n/a | ZAR 114 | ZAR 109 |
Northam Platinum NPHJ.J | overweight | n/a | ZAR 137 | ZAR 152 |
Reporting by Marta Frąckowiak
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