Jobs and oil dominate as ports strike ends
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Wall Street has weathered an edgy start to the final quarter reasonably well this week, with the September employment report now an obvious final hurdle on Friday and firmer oil prices an irritant even as a three-day U.S. ports strike ends.
As has been the case for weeks, markets are trying to find the balance between signs of persistent growth but at a pace soft enough to sustain disinflation and Federal Reserve interest rate cut hopes.
Labor market soundings so far this week certainly support the former, though brisk job growth and the relatively modest oil price pop on Middle East tensions raised some questions over Fed easing speculation.
At least the threat that this week's ports strike may feed retail price rises looks to have been averted. U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports began reopening late on Thursday after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal to settle the industry's biggest work stoppage in nearly half a century.
As Chicago Fed boss Austan Goolsbee pointed out on Thursday, retailers and manufacturers had stockpiled about two weeks worth of items in anticipation of the strike and that should be sufficient now the dispute has ended.
This week's crude oil price rise, aggravated by comments from U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday that Israeli retaliation against Iran's rocket attack could target Tehran's oil facilities, has become a more unpredictable prospect as nerves about weekend events may keep traders on tenterhooks.
Still, despite this week's jump in crude prices CLc1, oil prices are only back to where they were a month ago and continue to track annual declines of more than 10%. U.S. retail gasoline prices remain close to eight-month lows.
And so the scene is set for the September payrolls report later on Friday, with consensus forecasts for another 140,000 new jobs last month - close to August's tally - and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
Most of the week's labor updates - private sector payrolls, jobless claims, vacancies and layoffs data - show the jobs market remains in relatively rude health.
So for all the cross-currents this week, the S&P500 .SPX has lost little more than 0.5% so far and futures are higher into Friday's open. Implied volatility captured by the VIX index .VIX, however, remains elevated at about 20.
The shifting rates picture and background geopolitics is trickier for Treasuries, where 10-year yields US10YT=RR have pushed up a net 5 basis points this week to 3.85% - but held close to Thursday's close overnight.
Fed futures pricing, with just 66bp of rate cuts now pencilled in by yearend, is leaning towards two further quarter-point Fed rate cuts this year rather than one of those being another 50bp move.
The dollar .DXY has been the big winner all week, not least as central banks around the world turned more dovish on their interest rate signalling just as Fed expectations ebbed.
But the greenback retreated slightly on Friday, partly as sterling GBP= clawed back some of the heavy losses suffered when Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey talked on Thursday of more "activist" and "aggressive" BoE easing.
Bailey's comments were dampened on Friday by his chief economist Huw Pill, who said "it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast."
Stock markets around the world .MIWD00000PUS were marginally higher on Friday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI resuming its recent steep climb on Chinese stimulus plans after a stumble on Thursday. The offshore yuan CNH= weakened.
In Europe, attention was focussed on European Union trade negotiations that struggled to find a consensus on raising tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese electric vehicle imports - with Europe's auto sector suffering multiple hits from the rivalry and dragging on region's industrial economy.
With Germany voting against the tariffs because of fears of Chinese retaliation against German carmakers, EU countries failed to vote clearly in favour or against, leaving the European Commission to decide, EU sources told Reuters on Friday.
In a later statement, the Commission said the proposal to impose definitive tariffs has obtained the necessary support - but it would continue negotiations with China "to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible."
European auto shares .SXAP, which had been the worst performing sector this week with losses of almost 7% due to the tariff standoff and mounting profit warnings, jumped back almost 1% on Friday after the reports.
Elsewhere, the latest data on U.S. money market funds showed assets under management jumped again in the latest week to a new record of $6.46 trillion - puzzling some who had expected money to exit these cash-like funds as Fed rate cuts got underway.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
* US September employment report; Mexico August jobless rate
* New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks
* US corporate earnings: Apogee Enterprises
U.S. hiring has narrowed to fewer industries https://reut.rs/3NcTcxc
Jobless claims and Challenger Gray https://reut.rs/4eqjY0X
Cargo ships stuck outside US ports as of Oct 3 https://reut.rs/3ZQ4ZZD
Iranian oil infrastructure https://reut.rs/3ZN17sk
Fund flows: U.S. equity sector funds https://tmsnrt.rs/40SDRqx
By Mike Dolan, editing by Mark Heinrich
mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com
免责声明: XM Group仅提供在线交易平台的执行服务和访问权限，并允许个人查看和/或使用网站或网站所提供的内容，但无意进行任何更改或扩展，也不会更改或扩展其服务和访问权限。所有访问和使用权限，将受下列条款与条例约束：(i) 条款与条例；(ii) 风险提示；以及(iii) 完整免责声明。请注意，网站所提供的所有讯息，仅限一般资讯用途。此外，XM所有在线交易平台的内容并不构成，也不能被用于任何未经授权的金融市场交易邀约和/或邀请。金融市场交易对于您的投资资本含有重大风险。
所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。
本网站上由XM和第三方供应商所提供的所有内容，包括意见、新闻、研究、分析、价格、其他资讯和第三方网站链接，皆保持不变，并作为一般市场评论所提供，而非投资性建议。所有在线交易平台所发布的资料，仅适用于教育/资讯类用途，不包含也不应被视为适用于金融、投资税或交易相关咨询和建议，或是交易价格纪录，或是任何金融商品或非应邀途径的金融相关优惠的交易邀约或邀请。请确保您已阅读并完全理解，XM非独立投资研究提示和风险提示相关资讯，更多详情请点击 这里。
