Dividend outlay fog may lift after elections
Nasdaq ~flat, S&P 500 slips, Dow off ~0.3%
Real estate weakest S&P sector; Energy leads gainers
Dollar, gold up; crude rallies ~4%; bitcoin dips
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.11%
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DIVIDEND OUTLAY FOG MAY LIFT AFTER ELECTIONS
Dividends continued to grow in Q3, but at a slower pace, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"Q3 lacked the big-name initiation of the first half of the year when Brookings, Meta Platforms, Salesforce and Alphabet started to pay at a $16.4 billion rate, compared to Intel’s $2.1 billion dividend suspension this quarter," writes Silverblatt in a note.
He adds that companies remained shy of larger dividend commitments because of high economic uncertainty.
However, in Silverblatt's view, given the FOMC’s interest rate reduction kickoff, record Q2 earnings, and projected record earnings for both Q3 and Q4, companies may be more at ease to commit funds to larger dividend increases.
Still, for the remainder of 2024, the continued uncertainty over the economy and the size of the expected interest rate cuts will likely dampen the amount of dividend increases.
Silverblatt says that S&P 500 large caps are expected to post a 6% increase in dividend payments for 2024 compared to a 5.1% increase in 2023 and a 10.8% increase in 2022.
To him, the notable conclusion is that many companies have the ability and cash-flow to increase their dividend payments, but remain concerned over the economy, government spending and tax policy.
Silverblatt concludes that "Given the continued economic growth with lower interest rates and the relatively low unemployment rate, a clearer picture of potential policy should emerge after the election; at which time companies can better evaluate their future commitment."
(Terence Gabriel)
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