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前瞻分析

XM市场研究 - 6小时前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps; EURUSD remains beneath 1.1000UK CPI could provide some clues for the next BoE decision; GBPUSD in weak modeUS retail sales may lower chances for another Fed rate cut; USDJPY flirts with 149.35ECB decision -->  EURUSDThe upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday is this week's most anticipated event. Initially opposed by President Lagarde and her colleagues, the possibility of a rate decrease in October has gained traction among investors.�
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XM市场研究 - 7小时前Neutral

ECB to cut rates despite plethora of reasons for a pause – Preview

ECB meets on Thursday; markets expect a 25bps rate cutLots of reasons for a pause, including the lack of staff projectionsBut the ECB might choose to avoid disappointing the marketsThe euro could really benefit from a rate pause ECB meets on ThursdayThe ECB will hold its penultimate meeting for 2024 on Thursday, just five weeks after the September gathering that produced another rate cut.
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XM市场研究 - 3天前Neutral

Week Ahead – ECB headed towards another cut, CPI on the agenda elsewhere

The ECB is expected to deliver its first back-to-back rate cut on ThursdayCPI data incoming in Canada, China, Japan, New Zealand and UKChina GDP and US retail sales also high on investors’ radarIs an ECB rate cut a done deal?Following the RBNZ, which cut interest rates by 50 basis points this Wednesday, the central bank torch will be passed next week to the ECB.
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XM市场研究 - 6天前Neutral

As investors scale back Fed cut bets, US CPI data enters the spotlight – Preview

US NFP data eliminate chances of another 50bps rate cutSpotlight turns to US CPI numbers for SeptemberPMI data corroborate the notion for sticky underlying inflationThe data comes out on Thursday, at 12:30 GMTBets of 50bps cut in November disappearThe dollar’s engines received more fuel on Friday, with the catalyst this time around being the robust US employment data for September.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

RBNZ policy meeting: 25 or 50 bps rate cut? – Preview

RBNZ decision could shake kiwi/dollarAs inflation ticks lower, another rate cut is expectedPolicy meeting takes place on Wednesday at 01:00 GMTRBNZ decision to cut ratesThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is poised to make another rate cut on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to follow the Federal Reserve with a half-point cut, as the pressure to reduce real rates at a faster tempo is being exacerbated by a sluggish activity picture and lower inflation.
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XM市场研究 - 1周前Neutral

Week Ahead – As the dollar recovers, spotlight falls on US CPI inflation

US CPI data to guide Fed rate cut bets and the dollarRBNZ expected to cut interest rates by 50bps Wounded pound awaits monthly GDP numbersCanada jobs data and BoC business survey also on tabDollar rebounds on safe haven flows and upbeat dataThe US dollar staged a meaningful recovery this week aided by Fed Chair Powell’s remarks that the US central bank would likely stick with quarter-point rate cuts, adding that they are not “in a hurry”, as new data have bolstered their confidence in the
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Could Friday’s data tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

 Discussions about the size of the November Fed rate cut continueMixed labour market data up to now with ADP surprising on the upsideFriday’s data matters the most; non-farm payrolls seen rising by 140kGeopolitics boost demand for dollar, data could reverse this trend Fed rate cut discussions continueWith the market trying to figure out the next development in the Middle East and the likely market impact, the debate about the size of the November Fed rate cut continues.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD

First NFP report after Fed’s rate cut; USDJPY dives sharplyEurozone flash CPI in the spotlight with EURUSD standing below 1.1200BoJ Summary of Opinions on Tuesday; GBPJPY slightly recoup lossesNFP report --> USDJPYThis week’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data is crucial for gauging the US labor market’s health. Analysts expect the report, due on Friday, to show a moderate increase in job creation, reflecting ongoing economic stabilization.
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XM市场研究 - 2周前Neutral

Week Ahead – NFP on tap amid bets of another bold Fed rate cut

Investors see decent chance of another 50bps cut in NovemberFed speakers, ISM PMIs and NFP to shape rate cut betsEurozone CPI data awaited amid bets for more ECB cutsChina PMIs and BoJ Summary of Opinions also on tapWill the Fed opt for a back-to-back 50bps rate cut?Although the dollar slipped after the Fed decided to cut interest rates by 50bps and to signal that another 50bps worth of reductions are on the cards for the remainder of the year, the currency traded in a consolidative manner this
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

SNB meeting: a single or double cut this time? – Preview

SNB policy meeting has 50-50 chances for 25bps versus 50bps rate cut Potential reaction in Swissy on Thursday at 7:30 GMT SNB: another bank to cut rates The time for Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut rates again has come. The global economic environment is currently facing substantial problems, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, so this decision comes at a vital time when the landscape is facing these challenges.
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

Will core PCE inflation corroborate bets for another double Fed cut? – Preview

Fed cuts by 50bps, sees another 50bps by December Investors turn more dovish, which implies upside risks Focus turns to PCE inflation due out on Friday at 12:30 GMT   Some investors expect a back-to-back 50bps cut The Fed decided to begin this easing cycle with a double 50bps rate cut at last week’s decision, with the new dot plot pointing to another 50bps worth of reductions by the end of 2024. At the press conference following the decision, Fed Chair Powell noted that the econ
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

Weekly Technical Outlook - USDCHF, AUDUSD, EURUSD

SNB to cut rates as USDCHF holds within range RBA to hold steady with AUDUSD standing near 9-month high US core PCE index in the spotlight after Fed decision; EURUSD retreats to 1.1100 SNB interest rate decision --> USDCHF The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its policy decision on Thursday, following the announcements made by major central banks last week.
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

RBA policy meeting : It’s not time for a rate cut yet – Preview

RBA expected to deviate from the Fed and hold rates steady Inflation risks remain a concern; labor market is tight AUDUSD faces resistance near 0.6835; next barrier around 0.6875-0.6900   RBA to keep rates steady  It will be time for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to announce its rate decision when its policy meeting concludes on Tuesday, but don't expect a Fed-like rate surprise.
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XM市场研究 - 3周前

Week Ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation September flash PMIs to do the rounds; spotlight on euro area SNB to keep trimming as strong franc bites The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be the final major central bank to announce its policy decision in September.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Is the BoJ on hold until December's meeting? – Preview

BoJ expects no change Ueda comments may provide insight USDJPY remains above 140.00 despite a severe sell-off BoJ interest rate decision on Friday at 03:00 GMT BoJ decision to keep interest rate steady At its meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to keep its monetary policy position unchanged.  Most market watchers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its target range for short-term interest rates at 0% to 1%.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Will the Fed cut by 25 bps or 50 bps? – Preview

Fed is expected to cut rates, but is it too late to the game? Intense speculation about size of cut as markers lean towards 50 bps New dot plot will also be crucial in Wednesday’s decision at 18:00 GMT Fed to join rate-cut club The timing of the Fed’s first interest rate cut of the cycle has been the dominant market theme all year, but since the summer, the narrative has changed to the size of the cut, not when.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

EURUSD speeds up to test 1.1100 area as debate over a bold Fed rate cut continues USDJPY hits 14-month low; BoJ awaited to give direction on rate hikes GBPUSD shifts to the upside ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision   FOMC rate decision --> EURUSD The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Could BoE surprise with a rate cut on Thursday? – Preview

BoE meeting concludes on Thursday, the day after the Fed Economists assign an almost zero chance of a rate cut Wednesday’s CPI and the Fed rate cut could lead to a surprise BoE move Pound to benefit from an uneventful meeting BoE will announce its rate decision on Thursday The Bank of England is joining the chorus of the central bank meetings on Thursday.
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XM市场研究 - 4周前

Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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XM市场研究 - 1个月前

ECB policy meeting: another rate cut and emphasis on September’s data – Preview

ECB widely expected to deliver a second rate cut to 3.50% September’s data could be important for October’s meeting EURUSD looks bearish; next support could develop near 1.0990     Spotlight turns to economic growth too Inflation is no longer the sole focus, as economic growth has gained equal importance, athough central banks still prioritize maintaining symmetrical price stability around 2.0%.
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